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NOVEMBER 7,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

AT LEAST HE'S TRYING – FROM DAILY MAIL:   A 69-year-old Dutch businessman is battling legally to reduce his age by 20 years so he can get more work and attract more women on Tinder.
Emile Ratelband argues that if transgender people are allowed to change sex, he should be allowed to change his date of birth because doctors said he has the body of a 45-year-old.  The positivity guru, a media personality in the Netherlands, is suing his local authority after they refused the amend his age on official documents.  Mr Ratelband's case has now gone to a court in the city of Arnhmen in the eastern Dutch province of Gelderland.   This can lead to an entirely new global movement – the right to an individual age.  I'd imagine American liberals would choose twelve.

WHITE HOUSE PUNISHES CNN – FROM THE HILL:   The White House on Wednesday pulled press credentials from CNN's Jim Acosta after he engaged in a heated back-and-forth with President Trump.  White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders cited Acosta's refusal to give up the microphone from a young staffer who tried to take it during a press conference on orders from Trump.  Sanders said in a statement the White House will “never tolerate a reporter placing his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern. This conduct is absolutely unacceptable.”  “As a result of today’s incident, the White House is suspending the hard pass of the reporter involved until further notice,” Sanders said.  I'm lukewarm on this.  The best way to deal with a bully like Acosta is to expose him to the public...as a bully.  Punishing him makes him a martyr, which is what he wants.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  Ohio University leaders are reportedly considering the creation of a workout room that would be designated for minority students.
It’s one of at least three ideas proposed by a campus diversity leader as she and student leaders brainstorm plans to redevelop a portion of largely unused racquetball courts at the private institution.  Gigi Secuban, who took the helm over the summer as the university’s first-ever vice president of diversity and inclusion, reportedly made the suggestion at a recent student senate meeting.  “Secuban mentioned a plan to turn one of the racquetball courts at Ping Recreation Center into a private workout room for minorities, sexual assault survivors, or people with special religious accommodations,” The New Political student news outlet reported.  Enough already.

November 7, 2018      Permalink

SESSIONS FIRED – AT 5:14 P.M. ET:  Jeff Sessions has been fired by President Trump.  From Fox:

Jeff Sessions, once one of President Trump’s most loyal and trusted advisers before infuriating Trump over his recusal from the Russia investigation, has resigned as attorney general at the request of the president.

“At your request, I am submitting my resignation,” Sessions wrote in a Wednesday letter to Trump.

The president tweeted that Matthew Whitaker, chief of staff to Sessions, will become the acting attorney general. Whitaker, according to sources, is now overseeing everything at the Justice Department, including the Russia investigation -- despite calls from Democrats to recuse himself.

“We are pleased to announce that Matthew G. Whitaker, Chief of Staff to Attorney General Jeff Sessions at the Department of Justice, will become our new Acting Attorney General of the United States. He will serve our Country well,” he said.

Trump added: “We thank Attorney General Jeff Sessions for his service, and wish him well! A permanent replacement will be nominated at a later date.”

COMMENT:  My sense is that the president should have waited for election tensions to die down before making this change.  He's only looking for trouble, and he will find it.

Whitaker is known as a severe critic of the Mueller investigation,  That immediately makes him a lightning rod.  At the same time, the president is now better positioned to deal with Mueller, who's expected to issue a report soon.

November 7, 2018       Permalink

ELECTION LATEST – AT 4:53 P.M. ET:  Montana is gone.  Dem incumbent Senator Jon Tester is projected to win a narrow victory over GOP challenger Matt Rosendale.

In Florida, incumbent Dem Senator Bill Nelson, apparently defeated by a whisker by Republican Rick Scott, has asked for a recount.  Since the vote margin is less than half a percent, Nelson is legally entitled to it.  This could take days or weeks.

In Arizona, we are waiting for uncounted early ballots to be counted.  Martha McSally retains a narrow lead over Democrat Krysten Sinema.

In Georgia, Stacey Abrams still refuses to concede defeat, and is considering legal options even though her opponent, Republican Brian Kemp, has 50.3% of the vote.  In Georgia, if no one reaches 50% in the governor's race, there is a runoff.  But Kemp has reached 50%.  I don't get it either.  I suspect we're in store for several weeks of racial politics, in which Abrams will charge voter suppression.

November 7, 2018       Permalink

PAYING THE PRICE – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:  As they say, decisions have consequences.  From Fox:

Incumbent Senate Democrats in battleground states who opposed the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination appeared to have paid a price on Election Day, with senators Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Florida's Bill Nelson all suffering defeat.

In fact, every Democrat incumbent who opposed Kavanaugh in states rated "toss up" by Fox News lost their race. In contrast, the lone Democrat who voted for Kavanaugh, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, won his race.

"Every Dem Senator in a competitive race who voted against Kavanaugh lost," tweeted Tom Bevan, Co-founder of RealClearPolitics. Fox News polling offered evidence the Kavanaugh issue was a major problem for those battleground incumbent Democrats.

A Fox News poll from early October, just before the Kavanaugh confirmation vote, found 34 percent of North Dakotans said they would be less likely to vote for Heitkamp if she voted against Kavanaugh, with just 17 percent saying it would make them more likely to vote for her.

In Missouri, among the 28 percent of voters who said they could still switch candidates, almost twice as many said they'd be less likely to support McCaskill if she opposed Kavanaugh.

COMMENT:  There must be an entirely new mechanism put in place to insure that the abuse of Judge Kavanaugh never happens again.  It violated the American sense of fairness, and I'm sure that many women saw their son up there, or their husband, or brother, or father. 

It was that intrinsic American sense of fairness that brought down Joe McCarthy in the 1950s.  His cause, anti-Communism, was never very controversial.  His methods were, and the American people made clear their feelings.

Let us see if the Democratic Party will correct its methods, or yield once again to the blindness of identity politics.

November 7,  2018     Permalink

IT AIN'T OVER – AT 9:30 A.M. ET:  The election is not over.  Three critical US Senate races are still unresolved.

We thought we had Republican Rick Scott's victory in Florida nailed down, and Scott claimed victory over incumbent Dem Senator Bill Nelson.   Not so fast.  The final totals show Scott with 50.2% and Nelson with 49.8%, within the half-point spread that triggers an automatic recount in Florida.  You'll recall the Florida recount in the 2000 presidential race.  This can go on for weeks.

Arizona:  With 99% of the votes counted, our Martha McSally leads with 49.3%, with Dem Krysten Sinema at 48.4%.  However, we're told that there may be hundreds of thousands of early-voting ballots uncounted, and that could take many days.  One official says that there might not be first results from that count until Thursday.  The good news:  Earlier reporting said that the early Arizona vote came mostly from Republicans.  But we may have to wait to celebrate.

Montana:  Fascinating.  With 84% of votes counted, Republican challenger Matt Rosendale is leading incumbent Dem Senator Jon Tester, 48.9% to 48.2%.  We're hoping for a GOP victory to flip the seat, but it's too early to tell.

Now the sadness:  We lost Nevada, the only clear Republican Senate loss last night.  Dean Heller lost to Democrat Jacky Rosen.

There is no statistical way for the Democrats to take control in the Senate, but Florida, Arizona, and Montana, if they go GOP, would mean a GOP pickup of five seats, and that would be sweet.  We wait for numbers.

On another matter, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams of Georgia is refusing to concede defeat, despite the fact that Republican Brian Kemp leads her 50.5% to 48.6%. The source of her resistance is the fact that one county – DeKalb – has not reported all its votes.  Hmm.  DeKalb contains the Atlanta area, where Dem majorities are heavy.  And it's the only county out?  I wonder why, I wonder why.  Does the term "hanky panky" interest you?  If Kemp's final vote falls below 50%, there will be an automatic runoff.  Stand by.

November 7,  2018   Permalink

NOVEMBER 6,  2018

SIGN-OFF – I will be signing off for the night.  I must get my beauty sleep and be sufficiently rested to think brilliant thoughts in the morning.  The Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, and Montana are still too close to call.  In Wisconsin, only a few hundred votes separate Republican Governor Scott Walker and challenger Tony Evers. 

More in the morning.

12:10 A.M. ET:  The Nevada Senate race between incumbent Republic Senator Dean Heller and challenging Democrat Jacky Rosen is too close to call.  Heller is considered vulnerable, and it's here that the GOP could possibly suffer the loss of a Senate seat.  

The Montana Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale is also too close to call.

11:59 P.M. ET:  It now appears, although Fox has not called it, that Republican Governor Rick Scott of Florida has been elected to the Senate, defeating incumbent Bill Nelson.  If the count holds, this will be the fourth GOP Senate pickup, with no Republican losses so far.  We are still watching the razor-close race in Arizona.

11:25 P.M. ET: IMPORTANT – Some are calling it, some are not, but it appears Ron De Santis has been elected governor of Florida, defeating Democratic rising rocket Andrew Gillum.

It also appears that Brian Kemp has defeated Stacey Abrams for the governorship of Georgia.  Abrams had hoped to become the first black woman governor. 

So, it appears, unless there's a shocking reversal, that Ohio, Georgia, and Florida, will have GOP governors as we head into the 2020 presidential election. 

11:12 P.M. ET: FOX PREDICTS HAWLEY WILL DEFEAT McCASKILL IN MISSOURI, THIRD GOP PICKUP OF THE NIGHT.

11:06 P.M. ET:  IMPORTANT – Republican Mike DeWine, a former US senator, has been elected governor of Ohio.  Governors play an important role in the election machinery of a state, and having Ohio in Republican hands could be critical in 2020.

10:59 P.M. ET:  The Arizona race between our Martha McSally and the queen of weird, Krysten Sinema, for a US Senate seat, is still close to call, but press reports say that the majority of votes still to be counted come from Republican areas.  Keep fingers crossed.

10:35 P.M. ET:  Mitt Romney has been elected to the Senate from Utah.  Of course you remember him as the Republican candidate for president in 2012.  His relationship with President Trump has been testy, and one must wonder if Mitt entertains dreams of challenging the president in 2020 should Trump falter in the polls.  Just thinkin'.

It appears that GOP Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia, who rose to fame by defeating Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a primary, may well go down to defeat himself tonight.  His Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operative, holds a narrow lead, but the race has not been called.

10:21 P.M. ET:  FOX DECLARES TED CRUZ THE WINNER IN TEXAS, KEEPING A GOP SEAT. 

This will diminish the rising star of Beto O'Rourke who, properly, fell short.  But he'll be back.

10:14 P.M. ET:  Both the gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida are still too close to call.  We may not know the outcomes tonight.  (Remember the Florida recount in 2000?) 

No decision yet in Missouri, where the GOP is hoping to knock out incumbent Dem Senator Claire McCaskill, a notable survivor. 

9:58 P.M. ET:  Senator Ted Cruz, battling to keep his Senate seat against a vastly financed challenge from nothingburger Beto O'Rourke, has pulled slightly ahead of O'Rourke in the vote count, but the race is still too close to call.

Looks like incumbent Dem Heidi Heitkamp will lose her seat, as predicted, in North Dakota.  That will give the GOP two Senate pickups, assuming it doesn't lose any seats. 

9:32 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS DEMOCRATS WILL CONTROL THE NEW HOUSE.  Clearly, a major setback for our side, although widely predicted.

9:17 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS MIKE BRAUN WILL DEFEAT INCUMBENT DEM SENATOR JOE DONNELLY IN INDIANA, THE FIRST GOP SENATE PICKUP OF THE NIGHT.

But watch Texas, where Ted Cruz may be in some trouble. 

9:10 P.M. :  Fox predicts Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat, will hold on to his seat in West Virginia.  There had been some hope that he could be upset, but he is very popular in his state, and his vote in favor of confirming Justice Kavanaugh was a masterstroke in politics.

Fox also predicts that ethically overwhelmed Dem Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey will also keep his seat.  For our side, it's the same old story.  In every election cycle we think we see something encouraging in New Jersey, and it never happens.  The Democrats in the state come home on election day. 

9:05 P.M. ET:  FOX PREDICTS MARSHA BLACKBURN WILL WIN HER SENATE RACE IN TENNESSEE.  SHE WILL REPLACE BOB CORKER, A RETIRING REPUBLICAN, SO THIS PROTECTS A GOP SEAT.

8:51 P.M. ET:  Fox reports that Indiana Republicans are confident that Mike Braun will defeat Joe Donnelly, for a GOP Senate pickup.  I gently note that confidence is not votes, but it's better than despair.

8:45 P.M. ET:  Florida still razor-close in both the gubernatorial and senatorial races.  Right down to the wire.  No predictions.  Braun continues his lead in Indiana.  No real surprises anywhere, but, at this hour, it's hard to see the blue wave the Democrats were predicting.  Maybe a light drizzle.

8:16 P.M. ET:  Watch Florida!  Watch Florida! The gubernatorial race between Republican Ron De Santis and Democrat looney tuneser Andrew Gillum is deadlocked.  And the Senate race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and Dem incumbent Bill Nelson is almost even.  Ya never know. 

8:05 P.M. ET:  No important new calls, but watch Indiana.  There is a possibility, but no certainty, that Republican Mike Braun will defeat incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly.  Braun is leading by a good chunk, but Marion County, containing Indianapolis, a Dem stronghold, has not yet reported.

WE HAVE RETURNED – AT 7:44 P.M.

Returns are starting to come in, but remember that areas within states do not report at the same time.  Early numbers can be very deceptive.  There are no surprises thus far.  Some "exit polling" suggests a Democratic wave, but we don't know how some of that polling was done.  I think we'll know much more in an hour or so.  But be entertained up to then.

November 6, 2018       Permalink

THE HOURS OF WAITING – All I can tell you is that voting is very heavy throughout the country.  In some areas the totals for 2014, the last midterm, have already been exceeded.  Some commentators are saying that totals in places may reach 2016 presidential levels.

What does that mean?

The pundits are talking.  I wish they wouldn't.  Theoretically, a high turnout is good for the challenging party, in this year the Democrats.  Also, theory holds that Dems are angry, despise Trump, and are rushing to the polls to send a message.

Well, maybe.

But Republicans are also angry, at the way Trump is treated, and the way Justice Kavanaugh was treated.  And they are angry at illegal immigration.

We're being told that young people are voting in greater-than-usual numbers, and that would almost certainly be good news for the Dems. 

Another point being made by the commentariat is that there was record early voting this year.  Don't read too much into that.  It's been my experience that the first mistake many people involved with politics makes is not understanding the passage of time and its effects.  Cultures change, styles change, ways of doing things change.  One of the greatest changes in American society in the last ten years has been the explosion of online shopping.   It's entirely logical that those who shop from home will also want the convenience of voting from home.  So the boom in early voting may have no political significance at all.

We await numbers.  Discount most of what you hear and read before definitive numbers come in.

November 6,  2018     Permalink